Decline in urgent and emergency services halted but lasting improvements in performance will take time, researchers find
The 2023 Delivery plan for recovering urgent and emergency care services achieved initial performance improvements, but an overloaded health system means that challenges remain in sustaining improvements over time, University of ºÚÁÏÍø³Ô¹Ï±¬ÁÏ researchers have .
The recovery plan launched in January 2023 after one of the most testing years in NHS history with a perfect storm of pressures resulting in overwhelmed A&E departments, and significant numbers of patients waiting over 12-hours for beds.
Using national performance data, the ºÚÁÏÍø³Ô¹Ï±¬ÁÏ team show that initial improvements in the 4-hour and 12-hour waiting time targets and in the category two ambulance response times were achieved in the 12 months after the plan was announced. These initial performance improvements have since plateaued.
Professor Paul Wilson said: “A core aim of the recovery plan was to bring people together to coordinate a unified whole system response to tackle urgent and emergency care performance. This has happened – though the complexity of meeting national targets, addressing local challenges and responding to rising demand means that many systems have been running to stand still.â€
The recovery plan set out a number of ambitions, including:
Improve to 76% of patients being admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours by March 2024.
Improve ambulance response times for Category 2 incidents to 30 minutes on average over 2023/24.
Our real-time evaluation of the impact of the 2023 recovery has provided crucial insights that have informed current and future winter planning. This demonstrates the value of NIHR’s investment in independent, rapid and responsive evaluation to inform decision-making and future service delivery
During the period the recovery plan was implemented, the trend of declining performance for 4-hour waits and 12-hour waits was arrested, and performance improved across 4-hour waits, 12-hour waits and Category 2 ambulance response time between February and September 2023.
However, following September 2023, initial rates of improvement were not maintained across the different indicators, and performance plateaued. The findings demonstrate that meaningful improvement towards the set targets takes time to deliver, especially in the context of rising volumes in ED, experienced over this period.
The ºÚÁÏÍø³Ô¹Ï±¬ÁÏ team found that successful and sustainable change depends not only on service developments but also on three broad enablers - improved communication, partnership working, and visible and present leadership - identified via in-depth key informant interviews conducted as part of the evaluation.
Professor Jo Dumville said “Our real-time evaluation of the impact of the 2023 recovery has provided crucial insights that have informed current and future winter planning. This demonstrates the value of NIHR’s investment in independent, rapid and responsive evaluation to inform decision-making and future service delivery.â€
The report Independent evaluation of the 2023-2025 NHS Delivery Plan for Recovering Urgent and Emergency Care Services, including prioritisation of the high-impact initiatives is available .